The Demise of the The Atlantic Division

[Pop Zeus]

While there are good teams in the Atlantic Division, we're seeing a changing of the guard. Florida's defeat of Tampa underlined what we already knew. Boston choking last year and looking like they might do it this year is another indicator. Only three days ago, Leafs fans wanted to "blow it up."
The future - Buffalo, Detroit and Ottawa - well, the teams that focused on the future either stalled or stepped backwards, while the Wings took a step forward with the likes of Debrincat, Compher, Gostisbehere, Perron and Kane.
Florida is undeniably the class of the division - but even that's not bulletproof.

Florida - It took awhile, but the Panthers have established themselves as the class of the division. Loaded with talent, the Panthers can beat you with skill or Braun. But the Panthers 10 unreastricted free agents, including Reinhart and Montour. And Kukilov and OEL. And next year it gets worse, with Verhaeghe and Bennett and Ekblad. This might be the best chance for the Panthers. But if the cap doesn't catch them this year, it will next.
Outlook - 1 more year, perhaps, as a top cup contender. Should have enough talent to be a regular season winner for several years.

Boston - As great as Marchand has been in the series, he's 35. Pasta is the lone star forward in his prime and he clearly can't do it alone. Bergeron and Krejci gave it one more try and it didn't work. The lineage to Thomas and Chara is practically gone. And the Bruins are winning with smoke and mirrors in the regular season. McAvoy and Lindholm and Carlo are good defensemen and it seems like Swayman is the real deal in net. But the Bruins are running on fumes. I was surprised the didn't crash this season. I expect it to come soon - although I wonder about those Draisaitl rumors.
Outlook - Days as cup contender are over. Maybe a season on the playoff bubble before they fall into the draft lottery for awhile.

Toronto - The Leafs have never really shown they were a cup contender and their window with this group is closing. Tavares is a UFA after next season. So is Marner. It's been interesting watching this team commit to winning low-scoring hockey games with Matthews out....
With Matthews, Rielly and Nylander signed forever, they're going to to be good for awhile. But they've got some decisions to make. Does Stamkos finish his career playing for peanuts for his hometown team? What about Bertuzzi? Domi?
Isn't Marner for of a $9M guy than an $11M guy> Does Tavares stick for $2M a year?
Outlook: Not a cup contender, but should be in the mix near the top of the division for several years.

Tampa Bay - The Lightning look like they are playing out the string. Kucherov had a monster year, but it feels like Point has lost something. Stamkos was -21 despite 40 goals. How much does it cost to bring him back? The depth scoring for Tampa was pretty good. This is a franchise on the downside. Can they pull a Penguins and win two cups later in their careers? Hedman is 33 now. Stamkos is 34. Kucherov is 30. Point is 28. Can Sergachev, 25, return to form? What happened to Tanner Jeannot? Is Vasilevsky capable of upping his game?
Outlook: This team is too good not to be in the hunt for the playoffs - at least for a few more years. With Florida soon to experience cap issues and with some issues in Toronto, there's no reason Tampa can't contend for a division crown. But this team is slipping. And the defense needs help.
Outlook - A return to form from Sergachev could revitalize the team a bit, especially if other teams experience a drop. But expect the lightning to be in the 95-105-point range for 2-3 more years before things start really sliding. When they slide, it will get ugly because there aren't any young guns on their way.

Detroit - The Red Wings tied for the last wildcard spot but lost on a tiebreaker. The Wings' point percentage has has increased each of the last four years. 91 points was the Wings best since 15-16, the last time Detroit made the playoffs - in Datsyuk's final season. While Seider, Raymond and even Veleno made strides this year, it's hard to say how much of the team improvement is led by the kids. Some? Sure. But last year, not a single prospect debuted with Detroit. Guys like Berggren and Solderblom saw less NHL time with more UFAs on the roster. What will Detroit's scoring look like if the Wings lose key offensive depth? What happens if Detroit's shooting percentage gets a little more average? What part of the Yzerplan is this? Can the Wings afford to live with the mistakes of rookies? Are the rebuild pieces largely in place? Are they good enough?
Outlook - With Boston's imminent decline, there should be room for Detroit or one of the other teams to surpass someone. But that could be anyone. But does Detroit take a step back with all that cap money going to Seider/Raymond? If so, when does Detroit take another step forward? When Kasper and Danielson become 20-goal guys or more? 2-3 years from now? How sold are you that Kasper and Danielson are going to be better than Copp and Compher?

Buffalo - The Sabres took a 7-point slide this year and fired their coach. Then they hired Lindy Ruff. Doesn't actually seem like a forward-thinking organization. Despite that, the Sabres have a ton of young talent. Now they've got to gel into a winner. Easier said than done. Goals were down through the organization, including Cozens and Thompson. Jack Quinn was injured. JJ Peterka broke out. On the blueline, Dahlin was down. Samuelsson was injured. Look what they have on the left side: Dahlin, Power, Byram, Samuelsson... that seems a bit insane, given how little there is on the right side. This team needs a veteran center to help take the reins. A proven goalie. And minute-munchin RD.
Outlook - With all the talent, Buffalo could quickly find itself as a contender for the division crown. Or it could keep finishing of the playoffs.

Ottawa - Like Buffalo, they were a young, up and coming team that slid backwards. Expectations are a bitch. Tim Stutzle from from 39 goals and 90 points to 18 goals and 70 points. Other guys expected to be important played partial roles - due to injuries and off-ice issues. Something feels off about the Senators. There's a lot of talent on the Sens roster. But like the Sabres, there are questions, too. In goal, too. Some of their young guns are to the point where they have to be among the veterans who lead.
Outlook - Like the Sabres, they could hop past 2-3 teams in the division, or stay stuck outside the playoff race,

Montreal - It was fun watching Montreal play Hutson and Mailloux in the final home and home against Detroit. They've probably got as good a prospect pipeline on the blueline as Detroit with Guhle, Harris, Mailloux, Hutson and Reinbacher. But up front, this team has Slafkovsky, Caulfield and not much else. Especially at center, where hopeful 2Cs Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach were sidetracked by injuries. Of course, winning the draft lottery would be something. Suzuki is like a Dylan Larkin type 1C. He does the job, but you can't help but wonder if you need a better one.
Outlook - For years, whatever this post-price version of the habs has been has felt scatterbrained. It's starting to feel like the Habs might be on to something. Perhaps the Habs start battling in the division in 2-3 years.

Next year
Florida
Tampa
Toronto
Boston
Buffalo
Detroit
Ottawa
Montreal

25-26
Florida
Toronto
Buffalo
Tampa
Detroit
Ottawa
Montreal
Boston

[Pop Zeus]

By year 3, I would expect a nearly unrecognizable division. Tampa will be old. Florida will be capped out. Toronto could still be in the mix.

That's D4 for Danielson and ASP. D5 for Kasper. D6 for Cossa and Edvinsson.

Detroit should be in the mix by then.

Larkin will be 31
Dcat will be 29
Compher will be 32.
Seider will be 25
Raymond will be 24.
Edvinsson will be 23. Cossa will be 23.
Kasper will be 22.
Danielsson will be 21.

An interesting thing will be that 10-year gap between Larkin and the C prospects.

Dcat Larkin Raymond
Mazur Kasper Compher
Rasmussen Danielson Berggren?
X Veleno X

Johansson Seider
Edvinsson ASP
Wallinder ???

Cossa Augustine

IMO, just starting to make some noise.

[Pop Zeus]

Boston next season
Debrusk UFA $4M - if he wants more than $5M, let him go. 19-21-40
JVR UFA $1M - 11=28=38 - good cheap PP help
Maroon UFA $800,000 - probably time to let him go
Boqvist RFA $775000 - Useful guy
Heinen UFA $775000 -17-19=36 - owed a good raise.
Grzelcyk UFA $3687000 - 5'10, low production, healthy playoff scratch. See ya.
Forbort UFA $3M - too much for a partime-5-6 D
Shattenkik $1,050,000 - part time D
Swaymen RFA $3475000 - how much will he cost?

Let's say Swayman, Heinen and Debrusk take the $7M spent on Grezelecyk and Forbort...
That leaves about 4M to upgrade at another position.

With pressure coming in the Marchand, Ullmark contracts and Frederic (likely traded)

[Pop Zeus]

Tampa -
Free agents
Stamkos UFA $8.5
Duclair UFA $3M
Motte UFA $800,000
Watson UFA $776,000
Chafee UFAA $775000
Dumba UFA $3.9M
DeHaan UFA $.800,000
Fleury UFA $762000
Logan Brown RFA $775000
Seabrook UFA $6.8M

$75.1M for the following roster

??? Point kucherov
Hagel Cirelli ???
Jeannot Paul Chaffee
??? Glendening ???

Hedman Cernak
Sergachev Raddyish
??? Cerback

Vasil/Johansson

They've got about $13M.
$7M for Stamkos. $2M for a 2RW
That leaves $4M for some depth forwards and a 3LD,

[DocBrown]

I don’t know what D4 or 5 or 6 and other acronyms you use mean. Just speak plainly. Wings roster is full of placeholders. Whatever was accomplished this year cannot be projected forward. Really very little can be projected beyond Seider, Larkin, Raymond, Cat, Ed. Those are the difference makers but there is so few of them and the roster is so unsettled that projection is meaningless. Y needs to do GM shite as he doesn’t do much of anything beyond what is delivered to his lap.

[Pop Zeus]

I don’t know what D4 or 5 or 6 and other acronyms you use mean. Just speak plainly. Wings roster is full of placeholders. Whatever was accomplished this year cannot be projected forward. Really very little can be projected beyond Seider, Larkin, Raymond, Cat, Ed. Those are the difference makers but there is so few of them and the roster is so unsettled that projection is meaningless. Y needs to do GM shite as he doesn’t do much of anything beyond what is delivered to his lap.

D4 means - 4th year since draft.