Dominik Kubalik - A Shallow Dive

[Pop Zeus]

Kubalik is scratched tonight for Zadina.
Dude is still on pace for 25 goals and 60ish points - which is is a win, for sure.
To me it feels like he's going to be worthless by next year's deadline at this pace.
Injuries to Vrana and Bertuzzi and Fabbri helped Kubalik play up the lineup. He took advantage.

First 25 games 10-15-25 75 shots 16:26 5-7-12 on the PP
Next 24 games 4-5-9 43 shots 13:54 2-1-3 on the PP
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Did Kubalik really get that much worse?
Was he really that good?

Early in the year, Kubalik played with Larkin and Perron.
Now he's playing with Suter and Sundqvist - two guys who probably won't be here next year.

Checking out those teammate numbers
Perron 182 minutes 3-4-7
Larkin 174 minutes 2-5-7
Suter 147 minutes 1-2-3
Copp 107 minutes 1-1-1
Veleno 97 minutes 1-1-1

You can see that Kubalik hurt Larkin's CF
50% w/o Kubalik and 49% with.
That's not much.

On the other hand, actual shots? Larkin-Kubs together at a 54% SF rate. Larkin without is 50%.

How about goals for/against
11 goals for. 9 goals against
55%GF.
Larkin without? 44%.

So Kubalik was good for Larkin in shots and goals.

What happened? If I remember right there was some giveaway or coverage mistake that got Kubalik moved down the line.

Now he's completely out of the lineup - sitting for a kid who has ZERO points.

I don't think Kubalik is some great player.
But this kid guy 30 goals in the NHL. He got his role reduced and faltered.
He was on pace for 30+ goals again this year. He got his role reduced and faltered.

Even with his mistakes - he seems like a net positive force.

The Raymond-Larkin connection has 12 goals for and 19 goals against, for example.

Larkin with Raymond 384 minutes 1-8-9
Larkin with Kubalik 174 minutes 2-6-8

I don't think Kubalik is soft. I see him play with some jam.
I don't see him giving pucks away.
He gets caught on the wrong side of the puck some times. Maybe more than others?
Probably haven't watched close enough to see that.

His 5 on 5 GAA is 3.02 - better than Raymond and Rasmussen. A little worse than Larkin (2.87).
His GF/60 is 2.7 - 1/2 goal better than Raymond.

I think Kubalik is trashed because he was a stray UFA.
He's been objectively better than Raymond, for example, yet he's sliding down the lineup and now scratched.

My prescription for the good of the team.
Let Raymond play L2 and PP2 - reduce his stats.
Let Kubalik play PP1 and L1 - inflate his stats.

Sign Raymond to a team-friendly deal and move him up the lineup.
Trade Kubalik at high value.