New Year's Check in of the Wings

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Pop Zeus
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New Year's Check in of the Wings

Post by Pop Zeus »

Overall, the Wings are higher than I expected.
I was expecting a .455-470 team.
They're at .500.

Some of it is a mirage. The wing's goal differential is -22.
That's 4th worst in our shitty division.
And still 4th worst in the conference.
7th worst in the NHL.

I think it's possible the following teams overtake Detroit:
Based on Point%, we are 9th from the bottom in the draft pick race.

The only team that's a likely threat to pass us Is the Flyers (tied at .500).
The Islanders are a darkhorse.
On the other hand, the Blue Jackets and Sharks seem like solid bets to sink below u.


* Nedeljkovic is been good, but seems to be falling a bit. Greiss looks like he did early last year. Seems to struggle in a backup role.
* Larkin has had a huge rebound year, averaging a point per game. Faceoffs back up to 55 percent, too. A quick scan of his gamelog shows zero multi-point games against playoff teams.
* Raymond has had a great year, stats-wise. But I don't see what looks like a great player. If Vrana had been healthy and on line 1, and Raymond playing alongside Suter or Rasmussen, his numbers would look a lot different. I see a good IQ - but not much in the way of physical ability. You can plug him and he'll get points. But I don't see him driving anything unless he finds new gears in his game
* Bertuzzi - An 11-game goalless slump brought his numbers back to earth. 4 goals in 4 games since. Still looks like he'll hit 30 goals
* Suter = 2-7-9 in his last 13 has rescued what was a disastrous start. Still doesn't seem like an impact guy.
* Namestnikov - Scoring at a 20G 40P pace. Killing penalties. Many games, he's our best forward not on the top line.
* Seider - I don't put a ton of stock in the very nice offensive numbers. I don't see Seider as someone who should run a PP. But the kid is definitely beastly as an all-around, smart, physical defenseman.
* Fabbri - Also scoring at close to a 20G-40 pt pace. Hard not to see that -13. He's an NHLer. But probably a third line, 13-minute a night guy.
* Gagner - Who cares?
* Zadina - 32 games. 4-6-10. Last 23 games 2-3-5 -10. Look. Raymond showed us what someone with ability does on a top line - even if they aren't physically mature. Zadina has enough ability to stick around the NHL. And maybe one day he figures it out and becomes a 15-20 goal guy as a middle-nine guy.
* Rasmussen - Just brutal. At one point this season, it looked like he was turning a corner. Faceoffs were at 52. He was showing some confidence with the puck.
* Erne - One of last year's lone good stories has reverted to the previous year's form. Team worst 1-4. 1 goal every 10 games.
* Leddy - 0-8-8 -14. Come on now, boys. That defense. Man.
* Veleno - 3-1-4 -4 in 17 games. Has gone ice cold lately. He looks and skates like an NHLer. He's got to show NHL level decisiveness in his game.
Smith - Used sparingly. Physical. If I were Smith, I'd learn how to block shots and see if I could turn myself into a PKer.
Lindstrom - 24 games 0-4-4 +3. Was surprised to see a plus here. Every time I notice him, it's on a replay, digging the puck out of his net.
Staal - Meh. He can go.
Dekeyser - Ditto.
Rowney - He's not awful in his role.
Oesterle - So what?
Nedeljkovic - Has been solid. Weirdly, for a team with such a great home record, he's been pretty much as good on the road, if not better.
Greiss - At home 5-2 .940 1.86. Road: 1-5. .845 5.35.


DocBrown
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Re: New Year's Check in of the Wings

Post by DocBrown »

You sure like to dis Raymond alot. If Vrana started the season healthy, Raymond would be in GR. As far as the rest of his game is concerned, the kid is still just 19 years old. Against players his age he did pass the eye test to me. He's quick and slippery and handles the puck well and has a rocket wrister but he's playing against men now. Bigger, stronger and he holds his own. Give him a couple years as he grows into a man. I don't see anyone eye popping in his class that moves/carries/shoots the puck better than him. I don't know what you expect a 19 year old to do...he IS skilled it's not just smarts.
Resmo112
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Re: New Year's Check in of the Wings

Post by Resmo112 »

DocBrown wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:40 pm You sure like to dis Raymond alot. If Vrana started the season healthy, Raymond would be in GR. As far as the rest of his game is concerned, the kid is still just 19 years old. Against players his age he did pass the eye test to me. He's quick and slippery and handles the puck well and has a rocket wrister but he's playing against men now. Bigger, stronger and he holds his own. Give him a couple years as he grows into a man. I don't see anyone eye popping in his class that moves/carries/shoots the puck better than him. I don't know what you expect a 19 year old to do...he IS skilled it's not just smarts.
I was listening to a guy who does analytics for a living and I can't remember his name right now but it was on the Winged Wheel Podcast. Regardless, he was saying that as far as analytics goes for Raymond, not only are his really good but Berts and Larkin's are better when playing with him. So I have a problem with "I don't see him driving anything" not that it's exact science but better than the eye test.
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Re: New Year's Check in of the Wings

Post by hiramnicak »

Raymond isn’t flashy. I’ll give you that, but there’s so much more to being a great hockey player than flash. Zetterberg, Lidstrom, et al weren’t flashy, but they were elite players. Heck, Sanderson isn’t flashy either…

Raymond is a high IQ player with great vision, patience, a nose for the net, and he’s aggressive both on and off the puck. He takes a lot of shots. He makes players around him better. I too was pretty skeptical of Raymond at the draft, but early returns suggest he’s a great player.
Pop Zeus
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Re: New Year's Check in of the Wings

Post by Pop Zeus »

Resmo112 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:18 pm
DocBrown wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:40 pm You sure like to dis Raymond alot. If Vrana started the season healthy, Raymond would be in GR. As far as the rest of his game is concerned, the kid is still just 19 years old. Against players his age he did pass the eye test to me. He's quick and slippery and handles the puck well and has a rocket wrister but he's playing against men now. Bigger, stronger and he holds his own. Give him a couple years as he grows into a man. I don't see anyone eye popping in his class that moves/carries/shoots the puck better than him. I don't know what you expect a 19 year old to do...he IS skilled it's not just smarts.
I was listening to a guy who does analytics for a living and I can't remember his name right now but it was on the Winged Wheel Podcast. Regardless, he was saying that as far as analytics goes for Raymond, not only are his really good but Berts and Larkin's are better when playing with him. So I have a problem with "I don't see him driving anything" not that it's exact science but better than the eye test.
Wowy numbers can be fucked, because Larkin does double duty as a 4C between Rowney and whoever at times and might play more dzone situations.

Larkin's CF is better with Raymond than without.
But the exact same thing can be said like this: Raymond's CF is better with Larkin than without.
But the time differential (385 w, vs 80 without) means that without number can be impacted by 1-2 bad shifts.

Pretty obvious to me, data wise, Bertuzzi is the stirring the drink:

CF%
Larkin with Raymond: 49.86
Larkin w/o Raymond:42.0
Larkin with Bert: 49.56
Larkin w/0 Bert: 39.13

Raymond with Larkin: 49.9
Raymond w/o Larkin: 43.4
Raymond with Bert: 50.66
Raymond w/o Bert: 32.86


Bert with Raymond: 50.66
Bert w/o Raymond 42.65

Bert with Larkin: 49.56
Bert w/o Larkin 48.35

Points/60
Raymond w Larkin: 2.8
Raymond w Bert: 2.78
Raymond overall: 2.36

Bert w Raymond: 2.59
Bert w Larkin:L 2.66
Bert overall:: 2.60

Larkin w Raymond: 2.96
Larkin w Bert: 3.07
Larkin overall: 3.07

Most of the numbers are pretty similar.
But two stand out.
The CF% without Bertuzzi falls off the map for Raymond.
And falls below 40 for Larkin.
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Re: New Year's Check in of the Wings

Post by Resmo112 »

Pop Zeus wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:44 pm
Resmo112 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:18 pm
DocBrown wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:40 pm You sure like to dis Raymond alot. If Vrana started the season healthy, Raymond would be in GR. As far as the rest of his game is concerned, the kid is still just 19 years old. Against players his age he did pass the eye test to me. He's quick and slippery and handles the puck well and has a rocket wrister but he's playing against men now. Bigger, stronger and he holds his own. Give him a couple years as he grows into a man. I don't see anyone eye popping in his class that moves/carries/shoots the puck better than him. I don't know what you expect a 19 year old to do...he IS skilled it's not just smarts.
I was listening to a guy who does analytics for a living and I can't remember his name right now but it was on the Winged Wheel Podcast. Regardless, he was saying that as far as analytics goes for Raymond, not only are his really good but Berts and Larkin's are better when playing with him. So I have a problem with "I don't see him driving anything" not that it's exact science but better than the eye test.
Wowy numbers can be fucked, because Larkin does double duty as a 4C between Rowney and whoever at times and might play more dzone situations.

Larkin's CF is better with Raymond than without.
But the exact same thing can be said like this: Raymond's CF is better with Larkin than without.
But the time differential (385 w, vs 80 without) means that without number can be impacted by 1-2 bad shifts.

Pretty obvious to me, data wise, Bertuzzi is the stirring the drink:

CF%
Larkin with Raymond: 49.86
Larkin w/o Raymond:42.0
Larkin with Bert: 49.56
Larkin w/0 Bert: 39.13

Raymond with Larkin: 49.9
Raymond w/o Larkin: 43.4
Raymond with Bert: 50.66
Raymond w/o Bert: 32.86


Bert with Raymond: 50.66
Bert w/o Raymond 42.65

Bert with Larkin: 49.56
Bert w/o Larkin 48.35

Points/60
Raymond w Larkin: 2.8
Raymond w Bert: 2.78
Raymond overall: 2.36

Bert w Raymond: 2.59
Bert w Larkin:L 2.66
Bert overall:: 2.60

Larkin w Raymond: 2.96
Larkin w Bert: 3.07
Larkin overall: 3.07

Most of the numbers are pretty similar.
But two stand out.
The CF% without Bertuzzi falls off the map for Raymond.
And falls below 40 for Larkin.

I don't know what stats this guy was using, but Raymond has been really good he's a smart player and playing at a high level. I will try to find them when I have time
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Re: New Year's Check in of the Wings

Post by dcz28 »

I do agree with Bert being a big part of the top line. The top line doesn't look very good without him. To use Babcocks stupid line, he pulls the piano on that line but can actually play it too...unlike Abdelkader who was the piano strapped to Datsyuks back.

I don't know anything about advanced stats and i don't look at them but Raymond seems to be doing well most of the time from what i see. He might hit a wall at some point given that the NHL season is longer and a bigger grind. That happens a lot with Euro players in their 1st NHL seasons.

I'm not worried about Seider for that, he's a beast and i think he can handle it. That being said it would probably help him if the coach would stop pairing him with DeKeyser. Only problem is the Wings don't have much on the left side to pair him with.
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Re: New Year's Check in of the Wings

Post by Pop Zeus »

dcz28 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:31 pm I do agree with Bert being a big part of the top line. The top line doesn't look very good without him. To use Babcocks stupid line, he pulls the piano on that line but can actually play it too...unlike Abdelkader who was the piano strapped to Datsyuks back.

I don't know anything about advanced stats and i don't look at them but Raymond seems to be doing well most of the time from what i see. He might hit a wall at some point given that the NHL season is longer and a bigger grind. That happens a lot with Euro players in their 1st NHL seasons.

I'm not worried about Seider for that, he's a beast and i think he can handle it. That being said it would probably help him if the coach would stop pairing him with DeKeyser. Only problem is the Wings don't have much on the left side to pair him with.

To me, this kid is smart enough to make use of the space Bert and Larkin create.
Then, he's got a way better shot than I credited him for.
And he knows how to get them the puck.

But to me, he's clearly the complementary guy on the line right now.

That's nothing to sneeze at. Zadina played with Larkin last year and couldn't do shit.
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Re: New Year's Check in of the Wings

Post by dcz28 »

Pop Zeus wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:31 pm
dcz28 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:31 pm I do agree with Bert being a big part of the top line. The top line doesn't look very good without him. To use Babcocks stupid line, he pulls the piano on that line but can actually play it too...unlike Abdelkader who was the piano strapped to Datsyuks back.

I don't know anything about advanced stats and i don't look at them but Raymond seems to be doing well most of the time from what i see. He might hit a wall at some point given that the NHL season is longer and a bigger grind. That happens a lot with Euro players in their 1st NHL seasons.

I'm not worried about Seider for that, he's a beast and i think he can handle it. That being said it would probably help him if the coach would stop pairing him with DeKeyser. Only problem is the Wings don't have much on the left side to pair him with.

To me, this kid is smart enough to make use of the space Bert and Larkin create.
Then, he's got a way better shot than I credited him for.
And he knows how to get them the puck.

But to me, he's clearly the complementary guy on the line right now.

That's nothing to sneeze at. Zadina played with Larkin last year and couldn't do shit.
It is kind of expected for him to be more of a complementary player given he is a young rookie playing with two more established players. He might take on a bigger role as he gains more confidence and gets stronger. He is putting up similar numbers to what Mantha was doing with the Wings. Different players obviously but he seems to fit in with Larkin and Bert.

If only the Wings had a decent playmaking center for the 2nd line, they could try more combos. Imagine if Yzerman had traded for Kuznetsov last off-season instead of signing Suter. Vrana comes back and you know he plays well with Kuznetsov so you can mix and match who the 3rd guy on that line will be. Put Veleno as the 3rd center and Ras as the 4th line or just trade him.
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Re: New Year's Check in of the Wings

Post by Bomber »

dcz28 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:39 pm
Pop Zeus wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:31 pm
dcz28 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:31 pm I do agree with Bert being a big part of the top line. The top line doesn't look very good without him. To use Babcocks stupid line, he pulls the piano on that line but can actually play it too...unlike Abdelkader who was the piano strapped to Datsyuks back.

I don't know anything about advanced stats and i don't look at them but Raymond seems to be doing well most of the time from what i see. He might hit a wall at some point given that the NHL season is longer and a bigger grind. That happens a lot with Euro players in their 1st NHL seasons.

I'm not worried about Seider for that, he's a beast and i think he can handle it. That being said it would probably help him if the coach would stop pairing him with DeKeyser. Only problem is the Wings don't have much on the left side to pair him with.

To me, this kid is smart enough to make use of the space Bert and Larkin create.
Then, he's got a way better shot than I credited him for.
And he knows how to get them the puck.

But to me, he's clearly the complementary guy on the line right now.

That's nothing to sneeze at. Zadina played with Larkin last year and couldn't do shit.
It is kind of expected for him to be more of a complementary player given he is a young rookie playing with two more established players. He might take on a bigger role as he gains more confidence and gets stronger. He is putting up similar numbers to what Mantha was doing with the Wings. Different players obviously but he seems to fit in with Larkin and Bert.

If only the Wings had a decent playmaking center for the 2nd line, they could try more combos. Imagine if Yzerman had traded for Kuznetsov last off-season instead of signing Suter. Vrana comes back and you know he plays well with Kuznetsov so you can mix and match who the 3rd guy on that line will be. Put Veleno as the 3rd center and Ras as the 4th line or just trade him.
Adding a cokehead who is too stupid to hide it to a young team would be a mistake. Without Ovechkin to keep him in line i think his life would spiral out of control.

This group is just getting started with the Wings. There is no need to rush out and start signing patchwork players and free agents to a developing team. Give it a couple years and sign the right players when they come along. Here is no rush, they don't need players with giant warts especially when this team isn't ready to compete. That's how you get to be the Oilers.

The Wings look like they are doing it right. They are being patients and building a good base of players to make his team consistently successful.
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